In 2003~04, mobile carrier NTT Docomo released a series of “Vision 2010″ videos designed to show the world what the digital future would look like in less than a decade. Japan’s mobile ecosystem is surely the world’s most dynamic, but it’s interesting to see how lofty Docomo’s goals were. While other carriers have different focuses on their brands (Softbank on price, and AU on design), Docomo has long been a leader in future technology such as mobile payment.
Sure, we’re not doing full holographic mobile medical diagnosis in our automated robot cars (and our kids don’t look like Dr. Spock), but there’s still quite a lot that’s happened in the last seven years in the global mobile industry that can be seen in these videos.
Was Docomo too bold in these predictions? After all, 6~7 years isn’t much to accomplish such lofty mobile goals, but it’s a perfect demonstration of how Japanese companies aren’t just looking for the obvious answers.
A great example is the AT&T “You will” ads from 1993 that “predicted” with pretty good accuracy what our digital future will look like. Of course, they were completely wrong about who would actually be bringing the technology, and it’s also notable that even in 1993 they had their video-calling mother using a phone booth!
The Docomo videos are also filled with people doing video calls from all around the world. This is an interesting case study, because the technology and infrastructure to support these calls has been around for several years, and many Japanese are already carrying handsets with forward-facing cameras. However, it’s lack of consumer demand that has put off our video calling future. Even if the video calling function were paid for from the “all you can eat” data plans most Japanese have (rather than as an extra charge as it is now), we’re skeptical that it would get much use in the current environment.
Below you can find Docomo’s latest video (released in 2008), “The Road to Hokusai’s Waterfall“. Let’s come back to this one in ten years and see where we stand.
Thanks to Stephan Kinsella for the tip
Michael is the Editor of JapanTrends.com and Director of the 
People are not using video call out of one reason – privacy. Calling someone, at the core is a very private activity, and video call removes that privacy. Making video call (especially in public places) means you also have to talk pretty loud and the people around you will also hear very clearly view of who you’re talking to… Unless you are a street performer, video call on the mobile device will never be a good experince.
@George
Agreed entirely. However, that doesn’t account for home use. After all, the average Japanese person isn’t using the PC for regular video communication. It’s totally cultural.
Once the iPhone has a front-facing camera you’ll see people in America making video calls all over the place. After all, they don’t seem to be shy at all about using push-to-talk (which literally broadcasts your calls to the world).
@Michael We’ll have to see if an iPhone with a front-facing camera will change people’s behavior – my gut tells me it will not though – but i have an open mind about that. :)
I want to comment on the push-to-talk phenomenon though. Most of the people that use that are outdoor professionals and using their mobile as a walkie-talkie – construction workers, plumers, delivery person,… you get the idea.
I have yet to see regular Joe six pack and family of 4 sign up a Nextel push to talk plan and using their mobile that way. Just an observation….
Unfortunately, I’m regularly surrounded by commuters (not people on the job) who use push-to-talk because they don’t want to spend their minutes when they are on the phone. I live in the U.S.
@george
I have to agree with Jungle on this one. PTT actually became quite a big thing in the U.S., particularly among low-income groups, and has drawn the ire of a lot of people at the same time! It started with contractors, but moved well beyond that.
@michael
So true. Americans are far less inhibited about others hearing their conversations. Even when they are not using PTT, the volume of their personal conversations at the workplace is louder than it is in a Japanese company, although it is more likely that personal conversations are not even had in business areas during business hours in a Japanese company. Whatever privacy Americans do have left, they might willingly give it up by posting their personal pictures, personal videos, and personal lives online. If ever video calling becomes available on handsets in the U.S. and carriers offer an all-you-can-use data plan, I have no doubt that Americans will elect to use it. The novelty of the experience, coupled with the lack of inhibitions, will drive this use. However, this can only come when infrastructural issues (i.e., insufficient nationwide coverage, slow data speeds, and overuse choking the network) are resolved. Whereas the low use of the video call option in Japan is cultural, the continued lack of mobile video call in the U.S. is structural.